One of the keys to winning a fantasy football league is the ability to recognize overvalued players and injury risks and to ignore those players at draft time. “Slumpers” are NFL players who tend to be drafted in the top 3 at their position and produce like players drafted in double-digit rounds. These players are also known as “Draft Killers”, especially if they are first or second round players. The key to winning your fantasy football league is to find players that will produce on a consistent basis. You may be able to offset one Slumper with a Sleeper, but it is better to just avoid the dead weight if you can see any signs of a potential downfall. There are times that the signs are not present though. Who expected DeAngelo Williams to drop from 20 TDs in 2009 to 8 TDs in 2010 or Peyton Hillis to drop from 1650 total yards and 13 TDs in 2010 to 700 total yards and 3 TDs in 2011? Below are the 2012 top overvalued fantasy football players by position.
2012 Fantasy Football Slumpers
QB: Matt Schaub (Houston) – The Texans proved that they could win last year by just pounding the ball on the ground, even with a healthy Matt Schaub. There is no reason to deviate from that plan in 2012. The Arian Foster/Ben Tate tandem will be full steam ahead again this year. I know Andre Johnson is still on the team, but he and Schaub are both coming off of injury-plagued campaigns. Also, Houston has done nothing to improve its receiver corp around Johnson. I have no idea why Schaub is regularly being drafted in round 6-7, well ahead of Carson Palmer, Ben Roethlisberger and Jay Cutler. I have moved Schaub out of my Top 10 QBs this year and would only draft him as a backup at this point. That may be harsh but he’ll kill a team that reaches for him.
RB: Frank Gore (San Fran) – Gore always carries an injury stigma around with him, even though he played 16 games last season and produced rock solid numbers. However, Alex Smith proved to be comfortable in Jim Harbaugh’s system last year so the reigns will loosen this year. Also, San Fran signed Randy Moss and Mario Manningham to complement Michael Crabtree and Vernon Davis. Additionally, the Niners signed goal-line bruiser, Brandon Jacobs, and drafted LaMichael James. San Fran will spread the ball around judiciously and Gore’s numbers will suffer for it. He will not produce round 2-3 numbers this year so stay away.
WR: Roddy White (Atlanta) – White has long been unappreciated in all but PPR leagues since he consistently gets over 100 catches a year. However, he has been getting more and more inconsistent with his production and his Drops are increasing. I expect that trend to be more obvious this year as the Falcons shift to Julio Jones as their #1 receiver and run more plays for Harry Douglas and Jacquizz Rodgers. I am not saying that White will drop off a lot, but you certainly don’t want your 2nd or 3rd round pick to disappear completely in certain games, especially weeks 14-16.
TE: Tony Gonzalez (Atlanta) – Tony G has played at an elite level for much longer than I would have expected. I believe that you are going to see a downward slope begin that leads to retirement in the next two years. His overall numbers has been steady for his career, but the times are changing in Atlanta and, at age 36, Tony G’s career, like his speed, is winding down. There are too many other tight ends that you can count on.
D: Baltimore Ravens – The Ravens surprised me with another strong season in 2011, but they are clearly in decline. Ed Reed and Ray Lewis are slowing down as age catches up to them and Terrell Suggs’ absence this year (torn Achilles) will hurt a lot more than people realize. Unless your league puts very little value on the defensive position, I would only grab them if they stuck around to double digit rounds.
K: Adam Vinatieri (Indy) – In reality, any kicker drafted before the last 2 rounds is overvalued. The best way to evaluate a kicker to draft is by his Bye week. Take one kicker and one kicker only and then pick one that is available with the latest Bye week so you can forget about that position for as long as possible. However, you can skip Vinatieri. He still has a strong, accurate leg. He just won’t get to use it much for scoring this year.
Other overvalued fantasy football players to consider avoiding (this list could be pretty long if we included major injuries, recent DUIs and domestic issues): Any SEA QB or WR until the dust settles, RB Adrian Peterson (MINN), Any DET RB until one looks healthy, RB Shonn Green (NYJ), WR Kenny Britt (TENN), Any MIA WR all season.
Bill Parsons is the owner of http://www.MaximumFantasySports.com and a rabid fantasy sports participant. He began creating his own football and baseball fantasy leagues at the ripe old age of seven; tracking stats and standings on paper. Bill decided to create a real-time fantasy football league website that includes all of the best features and some of which have never been attempted at any other website. Maximum Fantasy Sports offers Free Fantasy Football leagues, Free Survivor Pools, Confidence Pools, Pick ‘em Pools and Squares Pools as well as Public Fantasy Football Leagues and Pools with cash payouts.
New Orleans has found new life after General Manager Mickey Loomis came back to work as the Saints are in dire need of his management skills in this hour of crisis. The management of the New Orleans team is facing unprecedented problems at the moment and as a result the fan base is quite upset with the result of the things.
Loomis was currently out on an eight match suspension related to the NFL Bounty probe which has brought out the dirty side of things. However, Mickey Loomis’ first official assignment is to clear out the contract issue regarding Sean Payton. Roger Goodell, the NFL football commissioner has refused to extend Sean Payton’s contract till 2015, as was originally decided when the coach was assigned back in 2011. If You like NFL buy tickets for your favorite team.
According to a recent revelation it has been found that Sean Payton is not bound by a formal contract after the end of the current season and this has fuelled an outburst among the fans. Loomis needs to handle the issue quite delicately as this is a very sensitive case and any hasty decision could lead to a major crisis for the Saints.
Loomis is also charged with the duty of having to check out the proceedings of the NFL ban of Jonathan Vilma and Will Smith. Legal moves have so far delayed the proceedings and things are set to resume shortly.
Joe Witt, the Saint’s Assistant Head Coach said that there was nothing much to talk about when Loomis came back and Witt commented “The Saints are slowly but surely coming back to their glory days and Loomis is back to take care of the proceedings and daily functioning of the club.
Loomis was heard reporting to an interviewer, “Sean is surely going to be the coach next year and he will carry the reputation on his responsible shoulders.” Vitt also did not approve of the fact that Sean will leave the side. He sounded rather skeptical of the facts.
Vitt in fact commented that, “This is the best side that there is in the tournament, I love everything related to the team, the players, the togetherness, everything.” He went on to comment that, “The upcoming games next week is the main focus for the squad and the Saints truly are the favorites to win the game.
Scott Shanle, the Saints linebacker said that the issue was rather demoralizing. A problem of this stature should never be repeated if the team pride needs to be maintained.